“As experts say, this asteroid is very dangerous because it is quite capable of causing extremely serious consequences at the site of its impact. That is why all those people who are in the supposed impact zone of the object are in dire danger,” one news site reported.
In fact, no specialist would even think of declaring something like that, at least in relation to 2016 QA2. To be fair, it is worth noting that there is still a small shred of truth in these alarming reports: asteroid 2016 QA2 really exists. But he had already flown past the Earth. This happened on August 28, 2016, and therefore there is no longer any cause for concern.
The excitement is caused by another fact: the asteroid was discovered too late - just a few hours before its dangerous approach to the Earth. In other words, astronomers simply missed it. And in the event of a real threat, many would not even have time to evacuate, much less defend themselves by shooting down a block with a rocket.
The first to detect 2016 QA2 were Brazilians from the Southern Observatory for Near Earth Asteroids Research, whose main focus is the search for asteroids and large meteorites approaching the Earth. Experts noticed a block with a diameter of 40 to 50 meters (about three times larger than the Chelyabinsk meteorite) only on August 27.
On August 28, the asteroid flew past the Earth at a dangerously small distance by cosmic standards - about 77 thousand kilometers (five times closer than from us to the Moon), seriously frightening observers. However, some media considered it necessary to disseminate information about this only now, spreading panic among the people.
This is not the first time that astronomers have missed an asteroid. A similar thing happened in 2011 when the 20-meter 2011 MD approached. The asteroid was noticed only 5 days before its approach. And it’s good that everything worked out well, because the block flew only 12 thousand kilometers from the Earth.
In 2008, a small asteroid was spotted in just one day and subsequently exploded over Sudan.
No one noticed the 17-meter “Chelyabinsk Monster” at all until the explosion occurred.
According to many scientists, asteroids are not scary for Russia. Back in 2007, British scientist Nick Bailey from the University of Southampton calculated the damage that would result from the fall of relatively small (tens and hundreds of meters) asteroids. At the same time, the scientist identified the most vulnerable countries. The computer produced a “top 10” list of countries where the destruction and casualties would be simply horrifying. And the good news is that Russia is not among them. The worst will be China, Indonesia, India, Japan and the USA. Next come the Philippines, Italy, UK, Brazil and Nigeria.
However, you shouldn't relax. The fall of the Chelyabinsk meteorite on Russia in 2013 clearly showed that our country cannot be considered completely invulnerable from the point of view of attacks from space. Another question is that there were no casualties or major destruction in that case.
Future dangerous encounters between our planet and asteroids:
In September 2016, astronomers predict that 6 blocks will fly near the Earth (of course, from the number discovered).
September 7 - 2004 DQ41 is a giant asteroid with a diameter of a kilometer, the distance to Earth will be 38.9 times the distance from the Earth to the Moon (LD).
American scientists from Sandia National Laboratory warn of an asteroid approaching Earth. The trajectory along which it passes heavenly body, does not allow us to name the place of his “landing”. However, scientists have decided on a date - the explosion could happen on September 4.
A new celestial body passes at a dangerous distance from the Earth. Astronomers have spotted asteroid 2016 QA2, which could collide with the planet at any moment. The estimated date of the asteroid's fall was September 4, but the location could not be determined. The consequences could be much more serious than 3 years ago - the current asteroid is 50 meters larger than the Chelyabinsk meteorite.
- The asteroid 2016 QA2 approaching the planet is much larger than the one that was later named Chelyabinsk. The diameter of the celestial body we discovered exceeds five tens of meters, that is, even if it ruptures in the upper layers of the dense gas shell of the Earth, the consequences will be catastrophic. And if the asteroid reaches the earth’s surface, then a real cataclysm cannot be avoided at all, - The news portal Planet Today reports an appeal from experts at the Sandia National Laboratory.
American physicist Mark Boslow says that such celestial bodies threaten the planet about once every half century. The repetition of the “Chelyabinsk” story after just 3 years surprises astronomers all over the world.
Let us remind you that on February 15, 2013 in the territory Chelyabinsk region The meteorite "exploded". He fell straight into Lake Chebarkul. More than 1,600 people suffered from the consequences.
Photo:chto-proishodit.ru
Team of Russian scientific institutes and the centers were recognized as safe and effective way destroying an asteroid threatening the Earth by launching a nuclear device towards it. As stated in an article published by scientists in the Astronomical Journal published by the Russian Academy of Sciences (N9, Volume 96), detonation of a nuclear charger (NCD) is the most radical way to counter such dangerous celestial bodies as an asteroid, but also effective.
“Calculations have shown that this method is effective and practically safe if certain conditions are met,” the article says. Scientists propose destroying the asteroid during its approach to the Earth, preceding the orbit when the asteroid will directly fall on the planet. “This is real, since almost all dangerous asteroids appear several times in near-Earth space before falling on Earth,” the article reports.
The proposed method of eliminating the cosmic threat is an extreme option when other ways to stop the danger are impossible. For example, options are possible for gently moving the astroid away from a dangerous trajectory when there is a spacecraft nearby at a long distance, which, due to gravity, deflects the dangerous celestial body. “Soft removal from the collision orbit may be required many times, but the destruction of the object occurs once,” the scientists conclude.
But the study notes that detonating an asteroid shortly before falling to Earth (as was the case in the 1998 Hollywood blockbuster Armageddon) is absolutely unacceptable, since in this case a huge amount of highly radioactive fragments will fall on our planet. If a celestial body is detonated almost immediately after approaching the Earth, some of the radioactive fragments may also fall to the Earth, but not immediately. This will happen only in a few years, and during this time their radioactivity will decrease from catastrophic levels to simply dangerous.
In work funded by the Russian scientific foundation, scientists from Tomsk State University, Research and Testing Center "Sirius", Institute of Applied Astronomy of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Institute of Applied Mathematics named after. Keldysh and the Kurchatov Institute Research Center calculated the geometry of asteroid explosions, the balance of energy and momentum, and the distribution of velocities in the case of complete and partial destruction of an asteroid.
Let us recall that in Europe at the beginning of 2010, a group of specialists to protect the Earth from asteroids NEOShield (Near Earth Objects Shield) was created. The NEOShield program is coordinated by the German Aerospace Center. The project includes organizations from Germany, France, Great Britain, Spain, the USA and Russia. As part of this project, Russian scientists have developed a system for deflecting asteroids that threaten the Earth using nuclear explosions in space.
As of October 2018, about 19 thousand asteroids were discovered in space that could approach the Earth’s orbit. For each known object, the orbit and collision probability are calculated more than 100 years in the future. Thus, astronomers know almost all large near-Earth asteroids larger than 1 kilometer in size that can cause a global catastrophe on Earth. Much less astronomers know about asteroids smaller than one kilometer in size due to large quantity such cosmic bodies. Of the near-Earth asteroids with a size of 100 meters or more, scientists know no more than 10%, and with a size of 20-30 meters - about 1-2%.
It is proposed to use the “obsolete” “Satan” to protect Russia from asteroids
To destroy asteroids in Russia they plan to use expired RS-20V (R-36M2) missiles and Voevoda (Satan) ICBMs, which the army is replacing with the latest heavy intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) Sarmat.
As Anatoly Zaitsev, general director of the Center for Planetary Defense, said this summer, they want to create a rapid response echelon of the international Citadel Planetary Defense System from RS-20V (R-36M2) intercontinental ballistic missiles.
“Since the total number of near-Earth asteroids (NEAs) larger than 15-20 meters in size (such as the Chelyabinsk asteroid) is several million, at the current rate of detection of about 2 thousand per year, it will take millennia to detect them all,” the head noted center.
According to him, astronomers do not see a threat from 20 thousand asteroids approaching the Earth, the orbits of which have been calculated. But after the “cosmic billiards” (collisions with other celestial bodies) “not dangerous object could become dangerous at any moment."
To protect the Earth from this threat, the general director of the Center for Planetary Defense proposed creating a rapid response echelon of the international Citadel Planetary Defense System, which “will ensure guaranteed detection of NEAs moving even from the direction of the Sun, at least several days before colliding with the Earth.” And when the asteroid is discovered, then with the help of rocket, space and nuclear means of the echelon interception service, it will be possible to deflect this dangerous object or destroy it.
According to Zaitsev, creating a rapid response echelon for the international Citadel Planetary Defense System will cost about $5-10 billion. However, this is a reasonable price for avoiding a global catastrophe that an asteroid can cause on Earth. Over the past 600 million years, there have been about 60 collisions with celestial bodies with a diameter of more than 5 km, which led to global cataclysms.
On October 31, 2015, on Halloween, a 600-meter asteroid called Halloween passed by at a distance slightly greater than the distance to the Moon. It was discovered 20 days before approaching the Earth. Then the Center for Planetary Protection, together with the Ministry of Emergency Situations of the Russian Federation, simulated the consequences of an impact from such an asteroid using a special software package.
If that 600-meter asteroid collided with the Earth, the energy of its impact would correspond to the explosion of 50 thousand megatons of trinitrotoluene. This is about three times the power of everything nuclear weapons ever created by mankind.
The diameter of the resulting crater would be about 10 km, and its depth - 3 km. The size of the destruction zone from the shock wave and seismic vibrations would be approximately 800 km. The number of human victims could reach tens of millions if this fall was unexpected, as in the case of the Chelyabinsk meteorite.
How the anti-asteroid echelon "Citadel" will work
The Citadel planetary defense system should include two echelons: short-term and long-term response, as well as two reserve services - a service for forecasting areas and the consequences of falls of celestial bodies and a regional protection service.
The short-term (operational) response echelon "Citadel-1" is designed to protect against objects up to hundreds of meters in size, such as Chelyabinsk or Halloween.
99.9% of near-Earth asteroids (NEAs) have this size. The echelon should include an international ground-space surveillance service and two regional segments of the reconnaissance and interception service - “East” and “West”, in the corresponding hemispheres of the Earth.
The Echelon will work as follows: after detecting a dangerous celestial body, the entire arsenal of ground and space means must join in its observation, including the launch spacecraft(KA)-scouts.
Based on the information received, a decision will be made to launch spacecraft interceptors to deflect or, in extreme cases, destroy a dangerous celestial body (CBO). A similar scheme was worked out 30 years ago, during the expedition to Halley’s comet. At that time, the Soviet spacecraft Vega-1 and Vega-2 served as reconnaissance aircraft. Then, according to their target designation, the Western European spacecraft "Giotto" passed at a given distance from the comet's nucleus.
Protection against cometary nuclei and asteroids many kilometers in size will be carried out by means of the Long-Term Response Echelon. Their interception will be carried out many months and even years before a possible collision with the Earth. This will require the use of super-powerful launch vehicles, power plants and other means that have yet to be created.
If we talk about auxiliary services that are intended to insure the main assets of the System, then the Service for Forecasting Areas and the Consequences of Falls of Celestial Bodies must develop options for evacuation and other rescue measures. One of the components of this service is a special software and hardware complex developed for the Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations. It has already been used to simulate the consequences of an asteroid like Halloween.
The second reserve service, the regional defense service, can be built on the basis of promising aerospace defense assets. A number of experts working in this area believe that with appropriate modification, these means will be able to protect regions in their locations from decameter-scale objects such as Chelyabinsk.
To create an echelon, it is necessary to have observer spacecraft, since it is impossible to control the daytime part of the celestial sphere from the Earth. For this reason, by the way, the Chelyabinsk meteorite, which flew from the direction of the Sun, was not discovered. This problem can be solved with the help of spacecraft. There are several projects of such spacecraft that can be placed in near-Earth or interplanetary orbits, as well as on the Moon. They will be equipped with telescopes operating in the visible and infrared ranges of the spectrum.
A pair of such spacecraft will be able to ensure guaranteed detection of dangerous celestial bodies (CHBs) approaching even from the direction of the Sun, at least several days before the collision.
To influence the OCB in order to deflect it from the incoming trajectory or, if necessary, destroy it, interceptor spacecraft with means of influence will be launched. The choice of means of influence will depend on the characteristics of the HCB, their orbits and the available time reserve.
The Rapid Response Echelon will use pulsed (strong) impact means - kinetic strikers and nuclear explosive devices.
Work carried out at the Snezhinsky Nuclear Center showed that an asteroid with a diameter of 500 m can be destroyed using a dispersed explosion of 10 charges of 1 megaton (Mt) each. This makes it possible, using modern rocket and space technologies, to organize operational protection against HCBs up to several hundred meters in size, that is, from approximately 99.9% of NEAs. Protection from the remaining 0.1% of larger NEAs and cometary nuclei, which will be detected many years before impact, will be carried out by means of the Long-Term Response Echelon. At the same time, in addition to impulse means, in some cases it will be possible to use weak means of influence. They are divided into direct impact means (rocket engines various types etc.) and remote (lasers, solar concentrators, “gravity tractor”, etc.). The interception schemes in these cases will be similar to the schemes of interplanetary expeditions to asteroids, comets and other bodies that have already been carried out many times. solar system. At the same time, interception means will perform tasks, as a rule, deflecting objects from a trajectory falling into the Earth.
By 2050, 11 dangerous asteroids will approach Earth.
Not a single asteroid potentially dangerous to the Earth will approach the Earth in 2016, RIA Novosti reported, citing the forecast of the Anti-Emergency Center of the Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations. Moreover, over the next 35 years, about 11 dangerous asteroids will approach our planet.
All celestial bodies that will approach the earth in 2016 will have a diameter of less than 100 meters. To the big ones space objects Scientists consider asteroids to be more than a kilometer in diameter. Such bodies crashed into the Earth about 120 times. The largest crater is located in Russia. Its size is 100 by 75 kilometers. Scientists explain the mass extinction of organisms about 20 million years ago by the fall of this meteorite. The extinction of dinosaurs was later and less widespread. Scientists also associate it with the fall of a meteorite.
“In 2016, dangerous approaches to such asteroids are not predicted,” says a statement from the Antistikhia center of the Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations.
The closest dangerous approach will take place on October 12, 2017. According to scientists' calculations, asteroid 2012TC4 will fly at a distance of 115 thousand kilometers from Earth. The speed of the celestial body will be 6.8 kilometers per second.
“The most potentially dangerous asteroid is Apophis (99942 Apophis), which has a diameter of 393 meters. On April 13, 2029, it will approach the Earth at a distance of 38.4 thousand kilometers, which is close to the altitude of the orbits of geostationary satellites (35.8 thousand kilometers). Approach speed will be 7.42 kilometers per second,” the forecast says.
“Before 2050, 11 approaches to asteroids are predicted to distances less than the average radius of the lunar orbit (385 thousand kilometers). The sizes of these objects range from seven to 945 meters,” the Antistihia center reported.
It was previously reported that in December-January residents of the Northern Hemisphere will be able to see a real celestial show. Comet Catalina with two tails will fly past the Earth, which, weather permitting, can be seen with the naked eye.
There are many space objects flying in close proximity to our planet. The most interesting of them are asteroids approaching the Earth.
Some flying asteroids are dangerous to the earth. Credit: topcor.ru
What does a “dangerous” asteroid mean?
Asteroids that are considered dangerous are those that:
- they fly up to us at 8 million km or closer;
- are large and strong enough not to fall apart when entering the earth's atmosphere;
- capable of crashing into earth's surface harming our planet.
In total, there are at least 4,700 such objects, but so far only 1 celestial body that threatens the Earth is included in the Main Asteroid Belt. This is a wide region roughly in the middle of the Solar System that includes:
- 4 bodies with a diameter of more than 400 km;
- 200 objects with a diameter of more than 100 km;
- 1000 asteroids with a diameter of more than 15 km;
- 1-2 million bodies with a diameter of more than 1 km.
There are about the same number of small planets of small size, for example 100-meter ones.
Experiencing the gravity of these two planets, they fly through space in closely spaced orbits that are relatively stable. However, there are often situations when collisions or internal processes a large body falls apart into several small objects or fragments break off from it. There is a great risk that they will leave the Belt and go to Earth.
Near-Earth asteroids and possible impact dates
Today, the list of small planets whose close encounter with us is not excluded and is expected in the coming years includes 2 asteroids.
Object 2013 TV135 with a diameter of 400 m will approach us in August 2032 by only 4 thousand km. It will fly at a speed of 15 km/s, and its collision with us will lead to an explosion with a power of 2.5 thousand Mt. For comparison, this is 200 thousand times more than the energy generated during the explosion nuclear bomb August 6, 1945 over Hiroshima - then the power was estimated at 13 to 18 kt.
The minor planet 2001 WN5, 1.5 km wide, was discovered in 2001, but was added to the list of dangerous planets later. Its next approach to Earth is scheduled for June 2028, but whether it will fly past (the distance is estimated at 250 thousand km) or crash into our planet is still unknown: the celestial body and its trajectory have not yet been sufficiently studied.
Cases of asteroids approaching the earth in the 21st century
In our century, several dangerous asteroids have already approached the Earth:
- Apophis;
- 2007 TU24;
- 2005 YU55.
First minor planet from this list was discovered in 2004 and for a long time was considered one of the most dangerous for us - the probability of a collision is high, this should happen in 2036. The diameter of this cosmic body is about 300 m, it weighs 27 million tons. When it comes into contact with the surface, the power of energy release will be 1700 Mt. This is 100 times more than the explosion energy of the above-mentioned bomb in Japan.
Apophis can cause a high-magnitude earthquake. Its magnitude even 10 km from the point of impact will be equal to 6.5 on the Richter scale. At the moment of collision, the shock wave will lead to the formation of wind blowing at a speed of at least 790 m/s, destroying even fortified structures.
However, at the beginning of 2013, this object flew past at a distance of at least 14 million km. Perhaps there will be no collision on his next visit.
Scientists first saw asteroid 2007 TU24 through a telescope in October 2007, and after 3 months it flew 550 thousand km. This is a bright celestial body, whose dimensions can be compared, for example, with the main building of Moscow State University on Vorobyovy Gory. It is considered a threat to us because it intersects with the Earth's orbit every 3 years, but there will be no collision until at least 2170.
Object 2005 YU55 has a diameter of 400 m and weighs about 55 million tons. It moves in an elliptical orbit with an unstable trajectory; researchers consider its behavior to be extremely unpredictable. At the end of 2011, the asteroid approached the Earth at a distance closer than the distance from us to the Moon. The second name of 2005 YU55 is Invisible: it is completely black, therefore it is practically invisible in space and poses a great danger to us.
Also flying past us in the current century:
In January 2012, the asteroid Eros approached our planet at a distance of just under 27 million km, which:
- has an average diameter of about 17 km and an irregular shape resembling a nut;
- is the first and so far the only cosmic body to escape from the Main Belt;
- considered one of the largest and most visible “inner” minor solar planets;
- moves in space with an average speed of 24 km/s;
- has a period of revolution around the Sun of more than one and a half Earth years.
If it crashed into the Earth, the consequences would be extremely catastrophic - worse than the impact of the Chicxulub asteroid, which fell about 65 million years ago and caused multiple tsunamis, forest fires, earthquakes, and the release of large amounts of carbon monoxide and soot into the atmosphere. But the likelihood that Eros will collide with us in the near future is small.
After this asteroid, the following appeared dangerously close to Earth:
Original ways to use dangerous asteroids
However, even the most dangerous celestial stone bodies can benefit earthlings. We are talking about a NASA program to “catch” an asteroid, changing its trajectory so that it heads towards space station. For this, it is planned to use a capsule launched towards the object when it is between the Earth and the Moon.
It will contain a special “bag”, which is a kind of net to catch the asteroid and tow it to the desired point.
If this plan succeeds, humanity in the future will have the opportunity to extract minerals from asteroids - iron and other substances, incl. those that are rarely found on Earth. They can also be used as sources of ice, which can be melted and separated into oxygen and hydrogen, for example, to produce fuel.
Asteroids are practically inexhaustible sources of resources. The small body, 1 km in diameter, is believed to contain at least 2 billion tons of iron-nickel ore. The development of these objects will lead to a reduction in prices for raw materials and will help avoid their depletion on Earth.
