It's time for humanity to say goodbye to the sinking Amsterdam, Venice, Tripoli, Yokohama and the Maldives
The level of the World Ocean is rising due to climate change, and this process can no longer be stopped, write Katerina Bogdanovich and Alexey Bondarev.
Englishman James Dixon is one of the few who considers the Maldives an excellent place for real estate investment. It would seem that there is nothing strange here, because this chain of picturesque coral islands in the Indian Ocean is one of the most beautiful places on the planet. And the number of people wishing to spend their holidays in the Maldives is growing every year.
In fact, all these people are rushing to visit the Maldives before they drown, laughs Dixon, the owner of a small British IT company, who is thinking about retiring and moving away from the bustle of the City of London. And the fact that the Maldives will be one of the first victims of global warming adds a special twist to his plans.
The Briton carefully monitors the latest climate forecasts and believes that the Maldives will have enough “buoyancy” reserves to last for his lifetime.
However, when planning to invest in the purchase of a plot on the islands, he is aware that for his children the benefits of such an inheritance will be very doubtful.
In the middle of the century it will be possible to begin to say goodbye to Bermuda and some other island countries. Warming will also hit Europe.
Climatologists predict several global scenarios for rising sea levels. And even the most optimistic one, according to which this figure will increase by only 1.5-2.0 m by the end of the century, still assumes humanity’s farewell to the Maldives.
More pessimistic (and at the same time more reliable, according to some experts) scenarios suggest that many of the picturesque atolls will be below sea level in just a few decades.
Dixon is convinced that just then it will be possible to earn extra money at some small hotel in the Maldives. “If the flow of tourists to the Maldives has increased by last years Just because the country is in the news more often due to the flooding, imagine what will happen when the islands actually start to go under water,” says Dixon.
The flooding of the Maldives is happening slowly, so tourists have nothing to fear, the Briton notes, but there will be a great temptation to come every year to see if your favorite restaurant has already been flooded.
And the Maldives is not the only victim that humanity will make to global warming. In the middle of the century it will be possible to begin to say goodbye to Bermuda and some other island countries. Warming will also hit Europe.
The pride of Italy, the famous Venice, continues to sink: according to the latest data, this is happening at a rate of 2 to 4 mm per year, and the process, contrary to previous studies, has not stopped for a year. Immersion in the waters of the Adriatic frightens the residents of Venice and local authorities, but has a positive effect on the local tourism business: the news that the city is sinking appeared in March of this year, and already in April prices in Venetian hotels soared by 52%, reaching an average of 239 euros per day - the same cost of accommodation in Geneva hotels, recognized as the most expensive in Europe.
In total, by 2100, at least 100 million people will have to be resettled away from the advancing waves.
Those who are deterred from pursuing elusive beauty by modest budgets may be comforted by the fact that the fate of Venice and the Maldives will sooner or later befall most of the planet.
By the end of the century, rising ocean levels will seriously alter the map of the world. In addition to the Maldives, Bermuda and Venice, entire pieces of the current US coastline, a significant part of Holland, and large areas in Italy, Denmark, Germany, Poland, and Spain will go under water. China and Japan will suffer greatly from the advance of the ocean - Shanghai and Yokohama will be flooded. Warming will also not spare Ukraine: the Black Sea threatens to swallow Kerch, Feodosia, Yevpatoria and Odessa.
In total, by 2100, at least 100 million people will have to be relocated away from the advancing waves. Humanity will feel the first consequences of this process in the coming decades.
“Sea level rise is an invisible tsunami that gathers strength while we do nothing,” warns Ben Strauss, a spokesman for the research organization Climate Central. “We are running out of time to prevent the worst consequences of the “big water.”
Irreversible process
Kenneth Miller, a professor at Rutgers University in New Jersey, believes that the rise of modern oceans will engulf the world's coastlines and harm 70% of the world's population.
Last year, a report by the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Program, a scientific group of about 100 climate scientists from eight countries, said that by the end of the next century, sea levels will rise by 1.6 m compared with 1990.
In the coming centuries, sea levels will rise by 4-6 m as Antarctic and Greenland glaciers melt like pieces of ice on a sidewalk in the summer heat
Further more. “Sea levels will rise 4 to 6 meters in the coming centuries as Antarctic and Greenland glaciers melt like pieces of ice on a sidewalk in the summer heat,” paints a depressing picture from Jeremy Weiss, a senior research fellow in the Department of Geological Sciences at the University of Arizona. .
In fairness, it is worth noting that the atmosphere, and with it the World Ocean, warms up not only human activity. In April of this year, another leak of methane, a gas along with carbon dioxide “responsible” for the greenhouse effect, was discovered at the bottom of the Arctic Ocean.
Scientists have noticed huge bubbles rising from under the water, up to 1 thousand meters in diameter, before, but the fact that they are becoming more and more in number indicates an alarming relationship: warming is melting underwater permafrost, and gas deposits are being released from under the ice, which accelerates warming.
water world
In addition to Venice and the Maldives, many other large and famous cities and states.
Danger lurks not only on islands lost in the endless expanses of the heaving World Ocean. Melting ice will be catastrophic for continental states as well.
By 2050, the famous island resorts of Tuvalu and Kiribati may be completely submerged.
Climatologists predict a bleak future for Miami, New Orleans and several hundred other coastal cities in the United States. According to a recent study by scientists from the University of Arizona, even if sea levels rise “only” by 1 m by the end of the century (and this is an incredibly optimistic forecast), all these cities will suffer serious damage. And a much more realistic 1.5-2.0 m increase to the current water level will be disastrous for them.
“The consequences of rising sea levels could include soil erosion, flooding and permanent inundation,” Weiss warns. Strauss adds New York to the “wet list” and argues that South Florida is at greatest risk.
Asia will not escape significant destruction. Huge areas in China will be flooded, including the area where the giant metropolis of Shanghai is located. Brazil and Argentina will be seriously affected South America.
The flood will not bypass Ukraine either: the list of probable victims includes, in particular, the Crimean cities of Feodosia and Kerch. Ukrainian scientists also name other objects. “Even today, Evpatoria and Odessa are suffering from rising sea levels,” says Yuriy Goryachkin, senior researcher at the Marine Hydrophysical Institute of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine.
Already today, Evpatoria and Odessa are suffering from sea level rise
According to scientists, a water rise of 2 m will leave 48 million Asians, 15 million Europeans, 22 million residents of South America and 17 million North Americans homeless, as well as 11 million inhabitants of the African continent, 6 million Australians and 440 thousand islanders in the Pacific Ocean . In subsequent centuries, when the water rises by 4-7 m, even more frightening consequences can be expected.
However, according to some experts, the possibility of more rapid development events. Most current estimates are tied to a forecast of a 2°C increase in average annual temperatures. However, in the spring of this year, a group of scientists from the USA and Europe published a forecast according to which we need to talk not about 2°C by 2100, but about 3 0C by 2050. Calculations and forecasts are presented on the website climateprediction.net.
The Kyoto Protocol has not worked, and the main culprits of pollution - the United States, India and China - have so far only declared their intentions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, researchers say. It is too late. Pessimistic forecasts show that sea levels could rise by 7 m within 100-150 years. Then not only Venice, Shanghai and Miami will be under water, but also Copenhagen, Yokohama, Tripoli and most of southern Ukraine.
Rescue of drowning people
Confronting global warming is something akin to fighting windmills, says Canadian columnist Mike Flynn. Whether it's big industrialists who don't want their profits to shrink, or methane reserves on the ocean floor rushing to freedom, it's about fighting relentless enemies, Flynn says.
In his opinion, the authorities of the Maldives did the right thing by opening a special account in 2008 to which part of the income from tourism will be transferred. These funds will be used to purchase land in Australia or India.
“We need to save for a rainy day,” former President Mohamed Nasheed explained this decision. “So that if one of the citizens wants to move from here, he will have such an opportunity.”
Official negotiations on the possible resettlement of 350 thousand islanders have not yet begun, and residents of other sinking islands - the Pacific Nauru and Tuvalu - have already lined up for Australian plots. And in April, the authorities of the Kiribati atoll began negotiations with the Fiji government on the purchase of 2.5 thousand hectares of land.
“We hope we don't have to move everyone to this piece of land, but if it becomes absolutely necessary, we will do it,” said Anote Tong, leader of the 103,000 Kiribatis.
In Europe, the approach to solving the problem is different. By 2014, construction of MOSE should be completed in Venice - new system protection consisting of mobile sluices and capable of withstanding water rises of up to 3 m (current hydraulic structures designed only for a 1.1-meter flood).
Dutch scientists are also involved in the development of dams: in a country where most of the territory is below sea level, this issue plays a vital role.
“The lives of millions in our country depend on how effectively the system of dams and other protective structures works,” says Guus Stelling, an employee of research institute Deltares.
No measures are being taken either in Odessa or Yevpatoria, and no one is going to do this
The Flood Control 2015 project, on which global technology corporations such as IBM are working together with Dutch engineers and scientists, will be able to prevent floods.
“Previously, a whole army of volunteers monitored the condition of the dams, but now special electronic sensors will be used,” describes the essence of the project, Peter Drieke, an employee of Arcadis, one of the development companies.
Nowadays, more and more new cards are appearing. You won’t surprise anyone anymore with interactive and three-dimensional, or. Online maps allow any Internet user to virtually visit almost any point on the globe and understand what is there and what it all looks like.
Without much difficulty you can find a map of pollution, radioactivity, solar and wind energy potential, the location of forests, roads and industrial enterprises.
One more map of the earth's surface created by the authors of the magazine National Geographic, which used data from scientists that if all the ice on Earth melted, sea level will rise to 65 meters . This should happen when the average annual temperature of the Earth rises by 12 degrees: from 14 at the moment to 26 degrees Celsius.
Over a hundred years, from 1913 to 2013, the average temperature rose by half a degree Celsius. Because of this, the sea level rose by 20 centimeters.
The volume of ice that is now on Earth, covering approximately 10% of its surface, is 9 million cubic meters. So far, the melting has not been very intense, because the heating of the planet has been largely compensated by an increase in the heat content of the world's oceans. But sooner or later this resource will exhaust itself, and the water will begin to heat up faster.
In addition, the process of melting ice is accompanied by cooling of water and a decrease in air temperature. This explains cold snap in Europe . If ice melt in Greenland and the Arctic continues at the same rate, temperatures in Europe are predicted to fall further. In addition, further cooling of the water in the north deflects the warm Gulf Stream further and further from the coast of Europe, which further aggravates the situation.
It turns out that against the backdrop of global warming there is local cooling. But this is a consequence. When the ice completely melts, the temperature will begin to rise again, although this may happen only after several decades.
Scientists report that if melting continues at the current rate, then by 2040 there will be no ice at all in the Arctic Ocean. According to research conducted by NASA, until 2024 the process of melting ice will proceed at the same pace as now, and then accelerate.
Melting in Antarctica , according to some forecasts, will proceed at an even faster pace than in the Arctic.
In the light of such prospects, the possibility of sea level rise by 65 meters in this generation seems real enough to pay attention to. And a map of the Earth's surface after all the ice has melted will help you decide whether you live in the right place - it clearly shows which areas will be flooded.
So look at these maps and think - maybe it’s worth moving?
Let's consider, in addition, some other parameters that you should focus on when choosing a place of residence - from the point of view autonomy and survival under force majeure circumstances.
- Normal environmental conditions: clean air, earth, absence of toxins and radiation.
- Availability of clean drinking water: underground water for a well, clean rivers.
- Average annual climate: most relevant for farming on your own site.
- Proximity to the forest: for the procurement of firewood and building materials, also the forest provides fresh air, mushrooms, berries, game, and the opportunity to hide.
- Average annual wind speed and solar intensity: possibility of using alternative energy.
- Fertile lands: although any soil can be made fertile - organic farming can help you.
- Distance from highways and roads: less likely to be attacked by marauders.
- Distance from cities: small settlements are better than big cities, and in any case, it is better to live on the outskirts of the city than in the center.
You can get more detailed information in the “All courses” and “Utilities” sections, which can be accessed through the top menu of the site. In these sections, articles are grouped by topic into blocks containing the most detailed (as far as possible) information on various topics.
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It is always interesting to imagine very unlikely, but in principle real things. What would happen if all the ice on Earth, which is more than 20 million cubic kilometers, melted?
National Geographic has created a series interactive maps, which demonstrate what catastrophic consequences would occur on our planet. Melted ice that would fall into the oceans and seas would lead to a rise in sea levels of 65 meters. It would consume cities and countries, changing general form continents and coastlines, wiping out entire populations.
Scientists believe it will take about 5,000 years for temperatures to rise enough to melt all the ice on Earth. However, a start has already been made.
Behind last century, the temperature on Earth increased by about 0.5 degrees Celsius, and this led to a rise in sea levels of 17 cm.
If we continue to burn our coal, oil and gas reserves, the average temperature on our planet will reach 26.6 degrees Celsius instead of today's 14.4 degrees Celsius.
So let's see what happens to the continents...
In Europe, cities such as London and Venice will be under water. The Netherlands and most of Denmark will also be flooded. The Mediterranean Sea will expand and increase the size of the Black and Caspian Seas.
In Asia, China and Bangladesh will be flooded, and more than 760 million people will be underwater. Cities destroyed will include: Karachi, Baghdad, Dubai, Kolkata, Bangkok, Ho Chi Minh City, Singapore, Hong Kong, Shanghai, Tokyo and Beijing. The Indian coastline will also shrink significantly.
In North America, the entire Atlantic coastline in the US will disappear along with Florida and the Gulf Coast. In California, the hills of San Francisco will turn into islands, and the California Valley will become a huge bay.
In South America, the Amazon Lowland and the Paraguay River basin will become straits of the Atlantic Ocean, wiping out Buenos Aires, coastal Uruguay and part of Paraguay.
Compared to other continents, Africa will lose less land mass due to rising sea levels. However, rising temperatures will cause most of it to become uninhabitable. In Egypt, Alexandria and Cairo will be flooded by the Mediterranean Sea.
Australia will gain a continental sea, but will lose much of the narrow coastal strip where 4 out of 5 Australians live.
In Antarctica, what was once continental ice will no longer be ice or continent. This will happen because under the ice there is continental relief, which is below sea level.
What does Antarctica look like without ice?
Antarctica may be the largest ice sheet in the world, but what lies underneath it?
Scientists from NASA have shown the surface of Antarctica, which has been hidden under a thick layer of ice for more than 30 million years. In a project called BedMap2, researchers calculated the total volume of ice in Antarctica to predict future sea level rise. To do this, they needed to know the underlying topography, including wide valleys and hidden mountain ranges.
Some of the most impressive discoveries in Antarctica were the deepest point of all continents, the valley below the Bird Glacier, which lies 2,780 meters below sea level. Scientists also obtained the first detailed images of the Gamburtsev Mountains, which are located under a 1.6-kilometer layer of ice.
The new map is based on surface elevation, ice thickness and base topography, which were made using ground, air and satellite surveys. Scientists also used radar, sound waves and electromagnetic instruments to create the map.
Many people have long had a presentiment and understanding that the world seems to be on the brink of a large-scale economic collapse or war, and perhaps something much more serious...For example, the fall of a huge asteroid or the Yellowstone disaster.
IN Lately There is simply a flood of messages from seismologists. At the same time, there are reports about strange processes on the Sun, about the approach of asteroids, about an incomprehensible situation with the climate and other unusual things and phenomena.
Another topic of conversation is rumors that the elites of the planet have known something for a long time.
For some reason, large organizations such as NASA and the Vatican are building new infrared telescopes, and private contractors have long bought up old command centers and missile silos in the United States, converting them into personal bunkers in case of the Apocalypse.
Many people write about this today. Bloggers and the “yellow press”, as mass publications are usually called, write. Therefore, when it comes to serious issues, official people suggest that everyone asking “wear tin foil hats.”
And now, an article appears in Forbes magazine, telling readers about a major catastrophic event that could possibly be on the horizon. The conversation is about volcanoes, about asteroids, and then follows detailed map, explaining sea level rise in different places.
There's nothing particularly new about the maps, but who is this article aimed at? For billionaires who have not yet bought real estate in case of the Apocalypse?
Hard to tell. But if Forbes starts publishing such things, it looks like preparations for Judgment Day are already in full swing or have already reached the final stage.
Flood maps from Forbes magazine
AMERICA
AUSTRALIA
Gordon-Michael Scullion argued that the pole shift would be associated with global warming, nuclear explosions and misuse of technology.
Another great clairvoyant, Edgar Cayce, predicted a pole shift of 16-20 degrees, while Scullion predicted a shift of 20-45 degrees. Casey predicted that Mount Etna in Italy would wake up and Mont Pele volcano would begin to erupt in Martinique. These two catastrophic eruptions will occur simultaneously and within 90 days authorities will be forced to evacuate the west coast before massive flooding inundates the entire coastline.
Now world scientists they say that the probability of a collision between our planet and a large asteroid is very high and this event will lead to a change in the Earth’s rotation axis.
In the laboratory jet propulsion NASA Pasadena's NEOWISE mission is the official asteroid hunter. According to Amy Mainzer (JPL, NEOWISE principal investigator), the mission discovered 250 new objects, including 72 near-Earth objects and four new comets. According to NASA, the deadliest year for asteroid activity in the near future is 2020.
Professor Donald L. Turcotte, an expert in planetary geology in the University of California Davis Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, says earthquakes are unlikely to cause a planetary shift and cause coastal flooding, of course this is possible if the magnitude of the earthquake is catastrophic in magnitude, but this unlikely. However, it is much more likely that an asteroid impact will cause a polar shift. This could ultimately lead to catastrophic changes and the emergence of a world map similar to the one we see in Gordon-Michael Scullion's vision.
With all this knowledge of the future awaiting the planet and those areas that will not be affected by flooding, the world's financial leaders know what we don't know and are preparing for it. Think about how many of the wealthiest families are involved in acquiring vast amounts of farmland around the world. For this reason, wars are started and governments of sovereign states are overthrown. All of their new properties are located far from coastal areas and in areas conducive to agriculture and natural resource extraction.
The safest areas in the United States, such as Montana, New Mexico, Wyoming and Texas, are very popular areas for the richest people. Millionaires such as John Malone (currently the largest landowner in America, owning 2,200,000 acres including Wyoming and Colorado), Ted Turner (2,000,000 acres in Montana, Nebraska, New Mexico and North Dakota), Philip Anschultz ( 434,000 acres in Wyoming), Jeff Amazon's Jeff Bezos (400,000 acres in Texas) and Stan Kroenke (225,162 acres in Montana) have all accumulated large reserves of cultivable land. Many billionaires are preparing for future rescue plans with "vacation homes" " in remote locations. Many of them also have their own private jets, ready to fly to safe areas immediately.
Even wealthy Mormon Church member David Hall, who oversees 20,000 congregations across the country, recently bought 900 acres of farmland. This Mormon cradle will be called NewVistas.
Tycoons in Australia and New Zealand are buying up farmland at a record pace. The interest of financial bigwigs in breeding large cattle, dairy products and agricultural farms makes us think that they need all this to create comfortable conditions for survival. But more importantly, the rich prepare safe havens, store properties in dry areas, and create huge reserves of food and water. Money and precious metals will be useless as self-sufficient territory becomes the new necessary luxury. Many of them have installed helipads at their sites for easy access, and many are purchasing bunkers around the world.
Consequences of the Pole Shift
All predictions of the post-polar shift are based on the theories of Gordon-Michael Scullion, Edgar Cayce and not only predictors, but also some scientists.
Africa
Africa will eventually be divided into three parts. The Nile will widen significantly. New waterway will divide the entire area, from the Mediterranean to Gabon. As the Red Sea expands, Cairo will eventually disappear into the sea. Most of Madagascar will also be swallowed up by the sea. Then new lands will rise in the Arabian Sea. New land will develop to the north and west of Cape Town, and new mountain ranges will emerge above the land in this area. Lake Victoria will merge with Lake Nyasa and flow into Indian Ocean. The coasts of central East Africa will be completely flooded with water.
Asia
This highly seismic region will have the most severe and dramatic changes on Earth. The land will be flooded from the Philippines to Japan and north to the Bering Sea, including the Kuril and Sakhalin Islands. When the Pacific Plate shifts its position by nine degrees, the islands of Japan will eventually sink, leaving only a few small islands. Taiwan and most of Korea will be completely lost. The entire coastal region of China will be flooded hundreds of kilometers deep. Indonesia will disintegrate, but some islands will remain and new lands will appear. The Philippines will disappear completely under the sea. Asia will lose a significant portion of its landmass due to these dramatic changes.
India
Due to the excessive curvature of the earth and the decrease in the altitude of the country, the people of India will be asked not to seek higher territory within the country, but to go to the Himalayas, to Tibet and Nepal and China or to higher mountains.
AntarcticaAntarctica will become a fertile, rich soil and farming area. New land will be created from the Antarctic Peninsula to Tierra del Fuego and east to the island of South Georgia.
Australia
Australia will lose almost twenty-five percent of its land due to coastal flooding. The Adelaide area will become a new sea all the way to Lake Eyre. The Simpson and Gibson Deserts will eventually become fertile agricultural land. Entirely new communities will be developed between the Sandy and Simpson deserts, and new refugee settlements will be created in Queensland.
New Zealand
New Zealand will grow in size and will once again enter the land of old Australia. New Zealand will quickly become one of the safest areas in the entire world.
Europe
Europe will experience the fastest and most severe changes to the Earth. Most of Northern Europe will sink under the sea as the tectonic plate underneath collapses. Norway, Sweden, Finland and Denmark will disappear and eventually create hundreds of small islands.
Much of the United Kingdom, from Scotland to the English Channel, will disappear under the sea. Several small islands remain. The remaining islands will include major cities such as London and Birmingham. Most of Ireland will disappear under the sea, with the exception of higher land areas.
Russia will be separated from Europe by a completely new sea when the Caspian, Black, Kara and Baltic seas unite. The new sea extends to the Yenisei River in Siberia. The region's climate will remain secure, resulting in Russia supplying most of Europe's food. The Black Sea will also merge with the North Sea, leaving Bulgaria and Romania completely under water.
Parts of western Turkey will go under water, creating a new coastline from Istanbul to Cyprus. Most of Central Europe will drown and most of the land between the Mediterranean and the Baltic Sea will be completely lost under water.
Most of France will be under water, leaving an island in the area surrounding Paris. An entirely new waterway separates Switzerland from France, creating a line from Geneva to Zurich. Italy will be completely divided by water. Venice, Naples, Rome and Genoa will sink below the rising sea. Higher heights will be created as new islands. New lands will grow from Sicily to Sardinia.
North America
Canada
Parts of the North-West region will be flooded almost two hundred kilometers deep. Regions in Quebec, Ontario, Manitoba, Saskatchewan and parts of Alberta will become the hub of refugees in Canada. Most migrants to the region will come from British Columbia and Alaska.
United States
As the North American plate collapses, only 150 small islands will remain from California. The West Coast will retreat east to Nebraska, Wyoming and Colorado.
Great Lakes and sea route St. Lawrence will connect and continue through the Mississippi River into the Gulf of Mexico. All coastal areas from Maine to Florida will be flooded with water for many hundreds of kilometers.
Mexico
Most of Mexico's coastal areas will be flooded far inland. The California coast will eventually become a series of islands. Most of the Yucatan Peninsula will be lost.
Central America and the Caribbean
Central America will drown and be reduced to a series of islands. Higher levels are considered safe. The new waterway will eventually develop from the Gulf of Honduras to Salinas, Ecuador. The Panama Canal will become inaccessible to navigation.
South America
There will be a strong earthquake and volcanic activity in South America. Venezuela, Colombia and Brazil will be overwhelmed by water. The Amazon region will become huge inland sea. Peru and Bolivia will sink.
El Salvador, Sao Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and parts of Uruguay will sink below the sea, as well as the Falkland Islands. An entirely new sea will rise to cover most of central Argentina. Huge land, which will include another new inland sea, will be developed and united with the land of Chile.
ADDITIONALLY:
Who is interested in this topic - watch LJ Nemo - http://nemoold.livejournal.com/, a number of articles there describe in detail the areas subject to flooding (mostly, the data is for Russia and Europe). Nemo's description maps are radically different from those shown in this article (Russia will suffer the least).
Due to the melting of glaciers, Paris and London will become islands, a sea will appear in the Urals, and Russia will become an industrial leader
Map of Europe after rising sea levels. KEES VEENENBOS.
They say, global warming invented by Al Gore, who served as US Vice President in the Bill Clinton administration. It was Gore who brilliantly realized that with the help of ecology you can make money (through greenhouse gas emission quotas) and put pressure on competing economies. This is how the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol of 1997, supplementing it, came into being, on the basis of which the quota trading mechanism began to function on January 1, 2008.
However, it should be recognized that the climate is really changing and scientists are recording this. It's about not about some abstract increase in the average annual temperature by a fraction of a degree, but about the consequences that have a very tangible impact on people’s lives today.
For example, at the European Geosciences Union General Assembly conference held in April 2016 in Vienna, a group of scientists led by Marcel Nikolaus from the Helmholtz Center in Bremerhaven made a report from which it follows that the most significant reduction in area will occur in the coming summer arctic ice over the entire history of observations. And experts from the UK Meteorological Service expect new heat records this year, despite the fact that last year, 2015, was already recognized by them as the warmest in 146 years.
How Paris will become an island
NASA and the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration estimate that global sea levels are currently rising by about 3.2 mm per year. This is a lot: back in 2012, the process speed was only 1.9 mm. At first glance, the numbers are not impressive, but this process has already led to the beginning of the splitting of large glacial masses. For example, a piece with an area of 12 square meters broke off from the Jakobshavn glacier in Western Greenland last summer. km. If the entire glacier slides into the ocean, this will lead to a rise in sea levels by 50 centimeters.
And the matter is not limited to the Greenland glacier. In the next 10-15 years, the prospect of a complete disappearance of the polar ice cap in the Northern Hemisphere in the summer, as well as a progressive reduction in ice volumes in other places, including mountain ranges on the continents. The UN predicts that over the next hundred years the level of the world's seas will rise by 6.4 meters.
Now is the time to remember that Venice and Astrakhan are only 1 meter above the current ocean, Kaliningrad and Odessa - 2 meters, Pisa and Bruges - 3, Vladivostok and Bangkok - 4, Shanghai and St. Petersburg - 6, Sochi - at 9 meters.
Melting ice will globally change the world map. Australia, for example, will shrink by a quarter. Netherlands - by 40%. The Dutch will definitely not be able to build even a 7-meter wall along the entire 451-kilometer coastline, and even protect the floodplains of numerous rivers - this is beyond the capabilities of the national economy.
In short, in 100 years the Netherlands will be the bottom of the sea. And they are not alone. Norway, Sweden, Finland, Denmark, and Great Britain will turn into a handful of islands of different sizes. Paris and London will become island cities.
Most of Turkey, part of Iran and almost the entire territory will go under water North Africa, including Egypt.
Russia will be separated from Europe by a huge sea, resulting from the confluence of the Caspian, Black, Kara and Baltic seas. It will wash away the entire Baltic region, except for a small part of southern Lithuania, eastern Belarus and northeastern Ukraine. Also, the Ural Lowland will turn into a shallow sea, and the Ural Mountains will become islands.
Houseboats on the coast of the Netherlands. Photo: iagua.es
Good and bad climate change
Such global changes will cause many accompanying processes. For example, more than 800 million people live in Europe today. Flooding of its territory will create a problem for their survival, which means it will give rise to migration processes comparable in consequences to the Great Migration of Peoples.
Progressive increases in average annual temperatures will reduce agricultural productivity in tropical and subtropical areas. It will become not only too hot, but also not humid enough. In particular, desertification could threaten the entire African continent south of the Sahara, but the prospect of the appearance of a steppe climate there (as in today's Kalmykia) is more likely, since a fair portion of the black continent will also become islands.
In general, according to WHO forecasts, over the next hundred years the number of hungry people in Africa alone will increase by 600 million people, and in the world as a whole it could reach 2 billion. For Russia, this will mean the opportunity to become the dominant global food producer. Current agricultural areas - the Don basin, North Caucasus, Lower Volga region, Southern Urals, Altai and the steppe part of Southern Siberia - will be under negative impact worsening water shortages during the growing season, which will reduce their productivity by 20-30%. But at the same time, global changes will make vast new parts of the country’s territory in Siberia and Far East. So far, soil fertility there is significantly lower than in the Black Earth Zone, but a change in flora will gradually enrich the Siberian soil.
Geography and economics
Despite the frank alarmism of the study, this scenario promises Russia significantly more advantages than problems. We, as a state, will be able to preserve not only the majority of the territory in general, but also the bulk of the most developed and technically advanced areas. Flooding of part of the Urals and Western Siberia, of course, will necessitate the resettlement of 10-12 million people, but, firstly, there is somewhere to go, and secondly, there is enough time for this. The problem with the resettlement of St. Petersburg will turn out to be noticeably more serious (especially if a decision is made to move the city’s unique architectural complex to a new location), but this is nothing compared to the densification of the French, who will be left with 10-13% of the country’s territory.
And most importantly, Russia will be able to retain the largest part of its industrial potential, only a fifth of which is located at the bottom of future seas. In the USA this share is at least 67%, in China - 72-75%. The fact is that most American and Chinese factories are built on the coastal strip - this makes it more convenient to deliver their products to ports for loading onto ships. In Russia, the main part of the coast is northern, so factories had to be built on rivers. The changes will certainly have a positive impact on the role and place of our country in a future global warmer world.
Of course, one should not take all these forecasts too literally and straightforwardly. They are made by people, and to err is human. But we can say with confidence that the world is changing at an unprecedented pace, and tomorrow will no longer be the same as it was yesterday. Changes are inevitable and global. But we have time to think, prepare and methodically adapt to the new reality.
